Economic Resilience of Pistachio Production under Water Scarcity A Panel Data Analysis of Iranian Production Hubs

Abstract

Water scarcity has become a persistent structural constraint on agricultural production in many arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, with particularly significant implications for pistachio-producing areas where production systems depend heavily on groundwater resources. Although pistachio cultivation has considerable economic importance for rural livelihoods, regional employment, agricultural income, and export earnings, prolonged water stress can undermine production stability and reduce the capacity of production systems to absorb and recover from climatic and resource-related shocks. This study develops an economic resilience framework for assessing pistachio production under water scarcity across major Iranian production hubs. The study employs a panel-data approach to investigate the relationship between water scarcity and the economic stability of pistachio production over time and across geographically distinct production areas. The empirical framework integrates production performance, cultivated area, climatic conditions, precipitation variability, drought intensity, and indicators of water-resource pressure to identify differences in resilience among production hubs. The analysis distinguishes between short-term fluctuations in production and persistent structural effects associated with water scarcity, allowing the resilience of pistachio-producing systems to be evaluated beyond conventional measures of yield or water productivity. Panel econometric models are employed to estimate the magnitude and direction of the relationships between water stress and economic production outcomes while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across production hubs and temporal effects. The results are expected to demonstrate substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the economic response of pistachio production to water scarcity, indicating that exposure to similar water constraints does not necessarily generate equivalent economic consequences across production regions. The findings provide an empirical basis for identifying production hubs with greater vulnerability and those demonstrating comparatively stronger adaptive capacity. The study contributes to agricultural economics by connecting resource scarcity with regional economic resilience and offers an analytical foundation for designing differentiated water-management and agricultural policies aimed at sustaining pistachio production under increasing environmental and economic uncertainty.